Accuracy
Validated against closed transactions, not vendor claims
Plotgleam accuracy figures come from comparing our valuations against subsequent closed sale prices across 18 months of Colorado transactions. No hedonic models, no self-reported estimates.
Validation Methodology
How we measure our own accuracy
For each property in our validation set, we ran a Plotgleam valuation using only data available on the day a hypothetical lender would have ordered it - before the property closed. We then compared that valuation to the actual closed sale price recorded in county records.
This forward-looking validation design prevents the hindsight bias that plagues many AVM benchmarks, where the model is tested on data it was also trained on.
Every validation run is conducted with a strict data freeze: no comp sales, permit updates, or MLS data dated after the valuation order date are permitted to influence the estimate being tested.
Performance Summary
Key accuracy metrics
Comparison
Plotgleam vs. standard AVM approaches
Published accuracy comparisons for national AVMs reflect their self-reported figures. Plotgleam figures are from our own prospective validation methodology described above.
| Feature | Plotgleam | National AVM (typical) | Desk Review | Full Appraisal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnaround time | Under 8 min | Seconds | 1-2 days | 10-14 days |
| Within-5% accuracy | 94% | 72-82% | 89% | 96% |
| Median absolute error | 2.8% | 4-6% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Block-level comp scoring | ✓ | ✕ | Partial | ✓ |
| Condition adjustment | ✓ | ✕ | Partial | ✓ |
| Auditable comp table | ✓ | ✕ | ✓ | ✓ |
| Confidence score | ✓ | Some | ✕ | ✕ |
| Mountain / rural market support | ✓ | Limited | Depends | ✓ |
Confidence Scoring
What the confidence score tells your team
90-100: High confidence
Strong comp availability, clean data, stable micro-market. 98% of these reports land within 5% of final close price. Safe to act on in most underwriting workflows.
70-89: Moderate confidence
Adequate comps but some data gaps or market volatility. 87% within-5% accuracy. Consider alongside other underwriting signals for borderline loans.
Below 70: Escalation flag
Thin comp market, significant data gaps, or high market volatility. Report is flagged for human review. Plotgleam will not deliver a low-confidence estimate without an explicit escalation notice.
Run a test on your own properties
Request a demo and bring a list of recently closed properties from your market. We will run Plotgleam retroactively and show you the accuracy figures directly.